Statistics-included
How the record actually decides
The fight is won at the framing layer, not the evidence pile.
The same evidence types are credited in wins and discounted in losses — the difference is posture, not the height of the stack.
In the denial record
Across 13,209 evidence items the AAO discussed in dismissals, 7.5% were credited — the losses are not short of exhibits, they are short of framing.
coded appeal decisions · S57
In the sustained decisions
The sustained decisions are set apart not by a bigger evidence pile but by posture — a specific endeavor, an argued national scale, concrete traction — the same three moves the other findings isolate.
sustained decisions (n=89)
Published approvals
351 of 479 published approvals show the specific-endeavor framing (73%); 6 the vague framing.
of a 479-approval stratified sample of law-firm published approvals
Advertised approvals a firm chose to publish — a story is counted where it advances an argument, not where it proved decisive — and never merged with the appeal record.
Work on this with your AI
Copy this prompt, paste it to your AI assistant, and add your draft where marked.
I am preparing an EB-2 NIW (National Interest Waiver) petition and want you to review a draft against a finding from the public record of NIW decisions. THE FINDING: The fight is won at the framing layer, not the evidence pile. The same evidence types are credited in wins and discounted in losses — the difference is posture, not the height of the stack. YOUR TASK: Assess the FRAMING of my draft: is the endeavor specific, is national scale argued, is traction concrete? Point to the weakest of the three and propose the fix before I add any more exhibits. RULES: Work only from what I paste — do not invent facts about me. Do not predict outcomes or estimate chances. Point to specific sentences and propose concrete rewrites. --- MY DRAFT --- [Paste your draft here]
The prompt asks your AI to review your own draft against this finding — it never predicts an outcome.
Sources & references
Insight vaultInsight vault: How the record decides
Each record describes itself; sustained decisions are the wins inside the appeal record, not a separate population. No figure predicts an individual outcome.